German Federal Agency for Nature Conservation, Bundesamt für Naturschutz, Konstantinstraße 110, Bonn, Germany
Most countries carry out risk assessments following a certain methodology to decide whether or not a species should be listed as invasive or potentially invasive on their territory. To identify candidate species which could become invasive in the future and should thus be prioritized for early detection, different approaches exist, from expert gatherings to systematic evaluation of species inventories. And while species distribution models have been proven to be helpful in predicting whether a species will potentially occur, they are not regularly included in the process of identifying candidate species. Most scientific studies, applying species distribution models for invasive species, focus on one or a few single species and/or specific methodological aspects.
This study therefore proposes an easy workflow to generate and evaluate species distribution models for a large number of candidate species. The resulting species distribution models are based on climate and land use data available globally. The models in this study were run for terrestrial plant species that might become invasive in Germany in the near future. However, the workflow can be applied to any terrestrial plant species. This study aimed at incorporating the latest knowledge and recent datasets to build a comprehensive workflow applicable to a large set of species and provide practical guidance. Here, I will present the workflow and the first modelling results for a set of about 30 candidate species that are included in lists of potentially invasive species in Germany.