Dragica Obratov-Petković1, Dragana Čavlović1, Ivana Bjedov1, Verica Stojanović2 and Marija Nešić1
1University of Belgrade-Faculty of Forestry, Kneza Višeslava 1, 11030 Belgrade, Serbia
2Institute for nature conservation of Serbia
Global climate changes are the most recognizable causes of change in plant biological cycle, plant distribution and degradation of plant communities. Degraded and devastated habitats are prone to newcomers, especially those which are close to water lines corridors. At the same time, riparian or wet habitats play a central role in the process of invasion and naturalization of alien plants.
We selected 10 of the most invasive plants which grow on riparian and wet habitats. The selected species are included in the Serbian preliminary list of invasive species as well as in invasive plant lists of seven respectable national lists for European countries. The aim of this study was to evaluate the impact of future climate change on habitat suitability and the distribution of invasive species. For each studied invasive species, we randomly selected 20 presence localities (i.e. co-ordinates where each species is recorded, either from literature or field surveying). Observed bioclimatic grid data were used in spatial resolution of 30“, for 1961–1990 period. Each grid cell contains the predicted suitability conditions for the selected species. We used MaxEnt software (3.4.1 version) for modelling species niches and distributions by applying a machine-learning technique called maximum entropy modeling. Models of ecological niche, after climate characteristics, determinate the habitat suitability for certain species according to data of plant distribution. Variables for future simulation were calculated via output data of EBU-POM model for 2061–2080 period. Simulation of variables for future period was done according to the A2 scenario of IPCC.
The analysis provided by EBU-POM model and data from Republic Hydrometeorogical Service of Serbia ensign that according to climate scenario A2, the annual average temperature will rise up to 3.8°C, and annual average precipitation decline for up to 15%, for the territory of Serbia. According to the distributions of Ambrosia artemisiifolia, Amorpha fruticosa, Asclepias syriaca, Aster lanceolatus comlex, Bidens frondosa,Echinocystis lobata, Erigeron annuus, Helianthus tuberosus, Reynoutria japonica and Solidago gigantea on more than 100 localities and prediction variables, the map of current and future potential distribution for the period 2061–2080 was constructed. Predicted maps show the distribution of each invasive species as a result of climate change and therefore habitat conditions.