Guillaume Latombe1, Bernd Lenzner, Céline Bellard, Franck Courchamp, Christophe Diagne Stefan Dullinger, Marina Golivets, Jonathan Jeschke, Ingolf Kühn, Brian Leung, Camiile Macnaughton, Dietmar Moser, Núria Roura-Pascual, Hanno Seebens, Zofia Taranu and Franz Essl
1University of Vienna, CVL Division, Rennweg 14, 1030 Vienna, Austria
Climate change, land-use change and biological invasions have been identified among the most important drivers of biodiversity loss. Changes in climate and land use have received much attention during the last decades, which resulted in readily available scenarios. In contrast, comparable approaches are completely missing for biological invasions, although recent research has shown that the numbers of alien species are rising unabatedly. Therefore, a thorough evaluation of plausible future trajectories of biological invasions is urgently needed to enable comprehensive assessments of biodiversity changes for the decades to come, to allow for better-informed decisions of policy makers and stakeholders, and to examine the future implications of different societal responses for biological invasions. In AlienScenarios, we will combine the strategic forward-looking methodology of scenario planning with advanced modelling approaches to construct, for the first time, plausible global mid-term (2050) and long-term (2100) futures of biological invasions and their impacts at different spatial scales and for a range of taxonomic groups.
In AlienScenarios, we will: (i) develop the first global, continental and regional scenarios and models for biological invasions for the 21st century; (ii) assess the effectiveness of regulation of invasive alien species; and (iii) evaluate the future impacts of biological invasions on the environment and human livelihoods
In summary, we will quantitatively elucidate the plausible range of future invasion trajectories, provide crucially needed data for pro-active alien species management and policy, and explore options for arriving at preferred futures through the adaptation of existing policies. Here, we present the current advancement of the AlienScenarios project with respect to the three points above.